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CM Scenario assessment

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In a glance

This module allows comparing different heating scenarios. The module is not integrated into the Hotmaps Toolbox, but it is provided as a separate Excel workbook that combines the results of other calculation modules to be previously run. The template as it is allows comparing up to 9 different scenarios, but if properly adapted, it can work for any number of scenarios. Separate worksheets are set up to collate the key indicators from each calculation module, while key indicators are automatically collated in the final table and represented in graphs.

[SCENARIO ASSESSMENT WORKBOOK: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD(https://github.com/HotMaps/scenario_assessment/raw/master/data/ScenarioAssessment_Template.xlsx)

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Introduction

The approach to assessing a number of different heating scenarios follows this sequence of calculations:

  • The building stock for the selected area
  • Costs, emissions and energy parameters for decentral heating supply,
  • Costs, emissions and energy parameters for an economic assessment of district heating supply
  • Supply dispatch costs, based on the size of the network assumed.

In each scenario, a certain portion of heating is assumed to be provided through decentral heating and another through district heating. For instance, a sensitivity analysis for a set of different district heating systems, with different penetration levels and different centralised heating supply technologies that may vary by the capacity of the energy generators could be built upon one common business case of decentral heating with certain fixed supply options. Viceversa, other sensitivity assessments could be run with one centralised heat supply scenario, investigating the impact of the different decentralised technologies, or with any other combination of scenarios.

The user runs independently all the calculations modules for each scenario under consideration, reports the results in the relevant sheet of Excel Workbook, and then compares them.

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Scenario assessment inputs and outputs

The inputs compiled in the scenario assessment Workbook are produced by the following calculation modules:

1. CM - Decentral heating supply

2. CM - District heating supply dispatch

3. CM - District heating potential: economic assessment

These indicators should be saved for each scenario and later on, be compiled in the scenario assessment workbook. The cells to be filled are properly marked and a color-coding legend is reported on the first sheet of the workbook, as explained in the following paragraph Interpretation of input parameters. Bear in mind that the three above-mentioned calculation modules, require some inputs that you may already have, or that you may have to calculate running other modules, as specified in the following paragraph Scenario assessment inputs and outputs. In case the inputs required by these modules were not available, they can be calculated using other calculation modules on the Toolbox as shown in the Training section.

The sheet "Final Tabel" calculates and shows a comparison of these indicators both in the figures and charts for each scenario:

  • Cost per year,
  • Levelized costs,
  • CO2 emissions,
  • Final energy,
  • Useful energy,
  • RES/DH shares.

For each scenario, the following indicators are shown in the form of stacked bar chart:

  • Overall (aggregated) costs of heat supply by district heating system and decentral heating system in M EUR/year
  • Overall (aggregated) CO2 emissions by district heating system and decentral heating system in tons/year
  • Overall energy carrier mix in MWh
  • Overal (aggregated) final energy and useful energy in GWh/year

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 Interpretation of input parameters

The input parameters needed to run this module are divided into:

  • Parameters to be selected from a drop-menu or filled out in the field in the calculation modules on the Toolbox. These fields are highlighted in turquoise in the workbook.
  • Parameters that can be selected either in the calculation modules on the Toolbox, or in the workbook, but that are already provided as examples and can be considered default values. These fields are highlighted in green in the workbook.
  • Parameters that are calculated and provided as output data in the Toolbox, and should be copied into the workbook in the fields highlighted in yellow.
  • Parameters that are calculated and provided as output data in the Workbook. These fields are highlighted in red and should be copied into another sheet as input for further elaboration.

On top of these, the workbook has instructions in red text and additional calculations that should not be edited in grey cells. The picture below shows how the color-coding indicated on the front sheet of the workbook looks like.

Final Table

This sheet mainly shows overall output parameters both in figures and charts, and it has few input parameters.

A Scenarios Table (R4:Z17) is ready to be filled with short description of the different scenarios object of the assessment. The table is right above the charts, it can be a reminder for the user or clarification for other collaborators.

Further down in the sheet there are some parameters that have already been filled out, but can be adjusted, as long as they are not left empty:

  • Renewable factor: is used to calculate the green final energy out of total final energy demand.
  • General efficiency factor: is used to calculate the total useful energy demand out of total final energy demand.
  • Grid losses: is used to build the decentral and district heating factor to calculate all the main overall indicators(levelized cost LCOH, CO2 emissions, Final energy, and Useful energy).

Building Stock

This set of three tabs is used to build the building stock that will be used as an input parameter to calculate the output of the decentral heating supply. Please visit this page for a deeper understanding of how the building stock feeds into the CM - Decentral heating supply.

Single-family building stock The worksheet as it is offers to structure a building stock for single-family houses of two different types, each column is dedicated to a building type and the CM - Decentral heating supply should be run once per type of buildings. The user can adapt the Workbook in order to combine any number of different building categories (e.g. per age, gross floor area, category, etc.).

Multi-family building stock

Decentral heating building stock

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Sample run

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Test Run: Example of a scenario assessment

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Interpretation of results

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References

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How to cite

Mostafa Fallahnejad, in Hotmaps-Wiki, CM-Scenario-assessment (June 2019)

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Authors and reviewers

This page is written by Mostafa Fallahnejad*.

  • [ ] This page was reviewed by Lukas Kranzl*.

* Energy Economics Group - TU Wien

Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives

Gusshausstrasse 27-29/370

1040 Wien

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License

Copyright © 2016-2019: Mostafa Fallahnejad

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 International License.

SPDX-License-Identifier: CC-BY-4.0

License-Text: https://spdx.org/licenses/CC-BY-4.0.html

Acknowledgement

We would like to convey our deepest appreciation to the Horizon 2020 Hotmaps Project (Grant Agreement number 723677), which provided the funding to carry out the present investigation.

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German*

* machine translated